Beyond the Grave
The deathcare industry is growing and Boomers are driving change toward more affordable and green options
Death is part of life, yet with the first wave of Baby Boomers nearing the end in the coming decades, the deathcare industry is readying for a surge in business and a makeover. Innovators are challenging the traditional funeral home model, offering new ways for people to be laid to rest.
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The world’s population boom, during which more than 6 billion people were added to the planet since 1900, is ending. In the coming years — by 2038, according to the U.S. Census — deaths will likely outpace births across the United States as they already do in a majority of its counties. Population growth has already reversed in some nations, like China, Korea, and Japan, and it is reshaping labor and consumer markets worldwide — the deathcare industry is not immune from this change.
The U.S. has already entered “Peak 65,” a period over the next four years when roughly 4.1 million people will turn 65 annually until 2027, creating the largest cohort of post-65s in the nation’s history. Thanks to increased longevity, their numbers, as a percent of the total population, are growing, too. By 2024, the U.S. Census projects that the number of people over 65 will be greater than that of those under 18.
The U.S. Census Bureau also projects that the number of deaths will increase significantly between the 2030s and 2050s. However, by 2060, the number of annual deaths is expected to nearly double compared to current levels, reaching over 3.6 million per year. Boomers will drive the first wave of growth in deathcare, and there’s no denying that this generation, born from 1946 to 1964, which has changed everything in America, will change how we die, too.
“Throughout their history, the Boomers have disrupted every tradition,” notes Michael Clinton, CEO and Founder of ROAR forward, a business focused on the New Longevity. “They led the sexual revolution, fought for women’s rights, established Earth Day, and more. They have already changed the concept of aging as life expectancies continue to grow. Expect them to completely change the ritual around death as well. All industries will have to adjust to their new expectations on how they will want to leave planet earth.”
Industry Shifts
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the total revenue for the mostly mom-and-pop funeral homes and death care industry in 2022 was approximately $16.94 billion. According to Technavio, the entire industry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.99% from 2023 to 2028.
Despite an uptick in deaths and projected industry growth, the number of people employed in the deathcare industry declined -2.2% on average — over the five years between 2018 and 2023. This is due to the aging of industry professionals, the failure to attack new talent, and consumer adoption of new technology, particularly online planning tools.
According to the National Funeral Directors Association’s (NFDA) 2023 Cremation and Burial Report, the U.S. cremation rate is expected to increase in the United States from 60.5% in 2023 to 81.4% by 2045. Burials, whether traditional or green, will make up less than one in five interments by then.
The NFDA notes that many consumers have gone online to plan for the end. More than two-thirds of consumers (67.4%) visited a funeral home website when they planned a funeral or memorial service, a 17.7% increase since 2022. More than a third (37.4%) made all their arrangements online, a 12.5% increase since 2022. Consumers even have the option to buy caskets directly from major online retailers like Amazon and Costco.
NFDA also reports that 60% of consumers would be interested in exploring “green” funeral options because of their potential environmental benefits and cost savings, up from 55.7% in 2021.
Change and Change Makers
These market shifts could potentially cause severe revenue losses for traditional funeral homes since cremation is cheaper and labor is now more expensive. However, these shifts are also creating new opportunities for those who are willing to innovate and meet the growing demand from online shoppers, people who want more control over their end, and those who want greener, more affordable options — a shift is underway.
“Often, they [consumers] report deathcare being difficult when they lost their parents; the whole time was perhaps shrouded in an inability to talk openly about what was happening,” explained Laura Cassidy, Client Experience Lead at Recompose, a public benefit corporation founded by designer and deathcare advocate Katrina Spade in 2017. “Often plans or wishes were never made or discussed, and they want a better experience for their families and friends.”
Funeralocity, a leading consumer advocate website for families planning a loved one’s funeral or cremation, found that over 50% of its inquiries came from customers interested in shopping for funeral pre-planning options for themselves or their loved ones. Pre-planning gives consumers insight into the options available and their costs, which can vary greatly from a couple of thousand dollars to tens of thousands of dollars.
Access to information on traditional funerals' costs and environmental impact is driving growth in green options. Virtue Market Research found that the global green funeral services market is growing as more people seek out these options. It is valued at $622.47 million this year and projected to reach a market size of $1.08 billion by the end of 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8.2% and outpacing the growth of traditional embalming and burial, which is anemic.
Here are some of the current offerings:
Green Burial: Green burials, also known as natural burials, forgo conventional methods that use embalming fluids and metal caskets, opting instead for biodegradable materials and minimal environmental impact. Funeral homes like Heritage Acres Memorial Sanctuary in Ohio and Memorial Ecosystem’s Ramsey Creek Preserve in South Carolina use this eco-friendly approach, offering natural burial options in protected natural areas. The Green Burial Council certifies such providers, ensuring that these practices contribute to conservation efforts and a sustainable approach to honoring the dead.
Cremation-Related Options: These alternatives include bio-cremation or alkaline hydrolysis, which uses water and potassium hydroxide to accelerate natural decomposition, and conservation cremation, which combines traditional cremation with carbon offset programs. Additionally, companies like Eternal Reefs offer a unique twist by incorporating cremated remains into artificial reefs, promoting marine life. These eco-friendly options provide meaningful ways to honor loved ones while reducing the environmental impact traditionally associated with cremation.
Natural Organic Reduction (NOR): Also known as human composting, NOR involves placing the body in a vessel with organic materials like wood chips and straw and allowing it to decompose naturally over several weeks. The resulting nutrient-rich soil can be returned to families or used to nourish conservation land. Providers like Recompose in Seattle, Washington, and Return Home in Auburn, Washington, are leading the charge in offering this sustainable option, which significantly reduces carbon emissions and land use while creating a life-affirming legacy.
“I think what they [consumers] really want are better options. Conventional burial and cremation are hard on the earth, hard on the environment,” according to Cassidy. “They're not natural, and they're not inspiring. They leave no room or no option for preserving and utilizing and honoring all that is rich and alive and nutrient-dense in our bodies. They're literal dead-ends.”