No children left behind

Rural Italy is aging and depopulating. Governments and businesses are trying to reverse the trend with mixed results

Illustration by New Rules Media

Rural Italy is grappling with a demographic crisis as declining birth rates and youth migration leave small towns with aging populations and shrinking communities. Efforts to revitalize these areas, such as offering "one euro" homes and financial incentives, have met with mixed success, while luxury brands repurposing abandoned towns into economic hubs show promise. Despite these initiatives, Italy faces an uphill battle to reverse its demographic decline, and the future may hinge on bold reforms in immigration and family policy.

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CASOLE D’ELSA, Italy—Rural Italy is facing a demographic reckoning. For decades, the nation’s birth rate has been collapsing while young people have fled small towns, searching for opportunities in bigger cities in Italy and abroad. What’s left behind are much older populations in these rural towns than in the big cities; many are losing population, too.

To understand the scale of this transformation, one must look not only at the startling data but also visit the rural communities here in Tuscany and other regions in the off-season. You’ll find a stark contrast to the summer months when tourists flood the streets of places like San Gimignano and Arezzo, breathing life into these places.

These picturesque towns are still decked out for the holidays this week — Epiphany was on Monday — but no one is around. Businesses are shuttered for the season or operate on very limited schedules due to a lack of demand or labor. There’s an eerie quiet everywhere. Many of these places feel like they’ve been abandoned, while some actually are, like Buriano, where the last resident left in 1998.

The average age in Volterra, the town with the oldest population in the region, is now 50.9. In contrast, the population's average age in Milan, Italy’s youngest city, is 45.3. It’s 47.3 in Florence, the largest city in Tuscany. When the average age is high, the ratio of old to young is typically imbalanced. Fewer people work, and more need public assistance.

Many of these towns are also depopulating, which has created a conundrum for the Italian governments. They must contend with multiple challenges—everything from declining tax revenue to decaying infrastructure (both private and public) to abandoned properties (both residential and commercial)—and find innovative solutions to address them.

“Free” Housing

One of the prevailing ideas around managing population aging and decline in many of these towns is incentivizing Italians and foreigners to move into these places, buy homes and repopulate through low-cost housing or direct payments. Similar attempts have been made in other demographically stressed regions worldwide, including parts of the United States.

By now, most people have heard of the infamous “one euro” home scheme developed in the Sicilian town of Salemi in 2008. The then-mayor, Vittorio Sgarbi, was inspired by a friend to offer dilapidated properties in the center of the town for the cost of one euro in an effort to revitalize the city, which had been damaged by an earthquake and was struggling with population decline.

Under this initiative, dilapidated properties are sold for the symbolic price of one euro, with the condition that buyers commit to renovating them within a specified timeframe, typically three years. Buyers must present a renovation plan and pay a deposit to ensure compliance, which is refundable upon completion. They are also encouraged to use local contractors and materials to boost the local economy.

Since its inception, other towns across Italy have tried this approach with mixed results. For instance, Fabbriche di Vergemoli in Tuscany saw its population increase from 594 in 2019 to 71 in 2024—a nearly 20% increase—partly due to the initiative. However, other towns, including the pioneering Salemi, have seen their populations continue to slide.

Earlier in 2024, Tuscany launched a new program called "Residenzialità in Montagna (Residency in the Mountains),” which offers financial incentives to encourage people to relocate to its underpopulated mountain towns. Eligible individuals can receive grants ranging from €10,000 to €30,000 (approximately $10,700 to $32,000) to purchase and renovate a primary residence in one of 76 designated towns with fewer than 5,000 residents. However, the program is limited to adults with Italian or EU citizenship or a long-term residence permit valid for at least 10 years, and it’s too soon to know if it will work in the long term.

Adaptive Reuse

Private organizations have stepped in to fill some of the void by propping up the local economy and preserving cultural heritage. For example, some luxury hotel brands and retailers have purchased entire towns and repurposed their buildings through adaptive reuse, in which a structure’s original use is reimagined or adapted to meet modern needs. This has turned some places, like Castello di Casole, into economic engines that create jobs, and people tend to stay or move to areas with economic opportunities.

Castello di Casole is one of the largest private estates in Italy, encompassing over 4,200 acres of vineyards, olive groves, and cypress-lined lanes. Once a crumbling castle and outbuildings, Belmond Limited, a globally renowned luxury hospitality group and a subsidiary of LVMH, has revitalized it. It is now home to a five-star hotel combining old-world charm and contemporary amenities and is widely considered a success story.

The hotel preserves its medieval architecture, including stone walls and frescoed ceilings. It also introduced an infinity pool, a world-class spa, and an award-winning farm-to-table restaurant where guests can enjoy Tuscan cuisine paired with wines produced on the estate. More than anything though, it provides jobs

Another success story is Il Borro, a hamlet purchased by the Ferragamo family in 1993. Today, it serves as a second headquarters, of sorts, for the Ferragamo fashion brand, known for luxury leather goods. It also has a hotel in partnership with Relais & Chateau, an agricultural estate, and an organic vineyard.

“When we bought the property, we were clear that we wanted to turn it into a hotel with many activities, like ‘agriturismo’, a farm-holiday kind of concept,” recalled Salvatore Ferragamo, the grandson of the founder. “We had to restore the village because it was abandoned. Rooftops were leaking so we had to build new roof structures and put the old tiles back on. For the rooms, you have all the modern conveniences like Wi-Fi and air-conditioning. But as for the plaster on the exterior walls, we left them alone. From the outside, Il Borro looks very close to the way it did 1,000 years ago.”

Slippery Slope

Despite attempts to reverse population aging and loss, every demographic projection in Italy points to a continued trend of getting older and smaller in the coming years. Simply put, more people die in Italy than are born each year. Italy will lose about a million people over the next five years, roughly equal to the size of Naples today.

Bigger, more prosperous cities, like Milan and Florence, will likely continue to grow, albeit modestly, while rural towns will continue to shrink, resulting in a net population loss. In the coming years, more rural towns will likely become ghost towns, and only a limited number of businesses can come in to save them. Government incentives alone likely won’t be enough to reverse these trends.

Reversing population decline in the coming years may require a complete rethinking of immigration and family policies. However, the immigration debate is fraught with pitfalls, especially with the nationalist and somewhat anti-immigrant Meloni government. And, despite social policy interventions being tested worldwide, including here in Italy, no country has successfully reversed declining birth rates in the long term.

But does a region or a country need a growing population to be successful? We’re about to find out.