The Navigator, Saturday, February 1, 2025
American consumers lose confidence, Trump tariffs and the cost of goods, buying less in 2025, political gravity, national report card—and more
What a week, with what can only be described as multiple “gray swan” events happening simultaneously across the U.S. A gray swan event is unlikely but possible and foreseeable and has a significant impact if it occurs. Unlike a black swan event, which is unpredictable and has an extreme impact, a gray swan is something that experts or analysts may anticipate but often underestimate in terms of timing, magnitude, or consequences.
There’s little question that the technology sector and the markets were rattled following China's announcement that it had created a language model called DeepSeek, similar to ChatGPT and others, for a fraction of the price without using advanced chips. Some have gone so far as to dub this a “Sputnik-level event,” calling U.S. supremacy in artificial intelligence into question. The markets tumbled, and, at one point, Nvidia, the maker of advanced chips, lost nearly $600 billion in market value, the biggest drop in U.S. stock market history.
The Trump administration continued its assault on norms, including firing 17 independent inspectors general [whose functions include receiving and investigating allegations of corruption, fraud, criminal activity and conflicts of interest in any federal government entity or agency under their oversight]. But a federal judge Friday placed a broad block on Trump’s effort to freeze a vast swath of federal grant and aid spending, saying a presidential freeze on funding thousands of education, healthcare and nonprofit poverty programs already approved by Congress and signed into law last year is likely unconstitutional. The Constitution gives Congress the power to decide how taxpayer dollars are spent and requires the president to “faithfully execute” the laws Congress passes; legal and congressional scholars predict new floor fights over presidential powers and a flood of new bills to be introduced in Congress later this spring to advance the GOP agenda. Republicans now have the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years, and their current 3-vote margin is soon expected to shrink even further, as GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is Trump’s pick for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, a role subject to Senate confirmation later this week.
American Airlines Flight 5342 and a Blackhawk military helicopter tragically collided over the Potomac River on Wednesday night in Washington, D.C., killing 67 people. While it will be some time until the National Transportation Safety Board finishes its investigation into the causes, reporting suggests multiple failures contributed to the catastrophe.
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U.S. Consumers Lose Confidence at Start of Trump’s Second Term (The Wall Street Journal)
Conference Board’s index falls more than expected.
Here’s what could get more expensive if Trump enacts tariffs this week (The Washington Post)
President Donald Trump proposed tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China could target over 40 percent of all imports.
The Americans Pledging to Buy Less—or Even Nothing (The Wall Street Journal)
People are tiring of overconsumption and want to pay off debt.
New York Magazine Called Out For Cropping Black Partygoers Out of Image for MAGA Youth Cover Story (The Hollywood Reporter)
The Black co-host of the pictured event is calling it "insane" that he was removed from the picture of the event in Washington, D.C. on the eve of Trump's inauguration.
Nearly 5 years after schools closed, the nation gets a new report card (NPR)
There’s some good news in math, mostly bad news in reading and lots of questions about why students are still struggling.
U.S. Businesses Already Love DeepSeek (The Wall Street Journal)
The Chinese company’s new model promises to lower the cost of AI for enterprises—even amid concerns about cybersecurity and geopolitics.
Trump Can’t Escape the Laws of Political Gravity (The Atlantic)
Sooner or later, nature will catch up to the president.
Here's how climate change fueled the Los Angeles fires (NPR)
Extreme conditions helped fuel the fast-moving fires that destroyed thousands of homes. Scientists are working to figure out how climate change played a role in the disaster.
Jeff Kerby maps extraordinary life at extremes (National Geographic)
The ecologist and photographer examines nature’s rhythms in the world’s harshest environments.
If Gen Z has given up on democracy, we’re in even more trouble than we thought (The Independent)
As a new survey reveals that most young Britons believe dictatorship to be a solution to the country’s problems, historian Anthony Seldon explains how self-centered behaviors instilled by growing up in a digital age are only partly to blame.
Beyond Doomscrolling (The Atlantic)
The Internet we have, and the one we want.
TV weather storm brews over Allen Media's plans to centralize weather operations (Axios)
A move by Allen Media Group to centralize weather operations at the Weather Channel, rather than keeping meteorologists at its local stations, has met with fierce resistance from viewers.