The Navigator, Saturday, March 1, 2025
America's aging workforce, grad school in trouble, Japan's population plummets, farmers sue feds to keep climate data, the Oscars get weird—and more
According to William Strauss and Neil Howe’s influential book The Fourth Turning, we're currently in the midst of a Fourth Turning—a roughly 20-year period marked by upheaval, institutional breakdown, and significant change. They argue these periods typically feature major crises such as wars, economic crashes, social shifts, or deep political divisions. Many believe our current Fourth Turning began with the 2008 financial crisis, intensified with the pandemic, and continues today through threats to democracy, climate crises, demographic changes, and rapid technological advancements.
A Fourth Turning involves the collapse of established norms, creating instability and prompting the search for a new order. Today's polarized politics, declining trust in democratic institutions, economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and generational divides closely match Strauss and Howe’s descriptions. Rapid technological advances, especially artificial intelligence and its impact on jobs, privacy, and governance, further align with their predictions of disruption during this era.
Despite the turmoil, a Fourth Turning also presents an opportunity for renewal and reinvention. Historically, these difficult periods have eventually led to stronger communities, revitalized civic life, and optimism about the future. How effectively society navigates today's challenges to build resilience and unity will determine what comes next.
For those traveling to Austin, Texas, next week SXSW, we hope you’ll join our session, “Fleeing to Safer Ground: Climate Change-Driven Migration,” where New Rules’ Co-Founders Marcia Stepanek and Bradley Schurman will be sharing actionable insights on how climate risk influences human migration and the challenges and opportunities ahead. It will take place on Tuesday, March 11, at 10 a.m. at the Hilton Austin Downtown, Salon B.
As always, thank you for making us part of your week. Please join the conversation by sharing your thoughts in the comments below.
At Least Now We Know the Truth (The Atlantic)
President Trump and Vice President Vance have revealed to Americans and to America’s allies their alignment with Russia, and their animosity toward Ukraine in general and its president in particular. The truth is ugly, but it’s necessary to face up to it.
How Europe must respond as Trump and Putin smash the post-war order (The Economist)
The region has had its bleakest week since the fall of the Iron Curtain. The implications have yet to sink in.
America's Aging Workforce (Time)
'Retirement is a distant dream.'
Grad School Is in Trouble (The Atlantic)
The latest signal that the future of the university is under threat.
Inside the FBI’s Lab Leak Investigation (Vanity Fair)
As bird flu spreads, and Team Trump begins dismantling America’s public health apparatus, a former FBI scientist and investigator speaks out about the evidence that led the bureau to suspect that COVID-19 was sparked by an incident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Japan’s population plummets with twice as many deaths as births (The Times)
Incentives to have children have not arrested the decline, which is even steeper than previously predicted.
Federal jobs went from reliable to risky overnight. Here’s where Americans can find stable work now — and in the future. (MarketWatch)
No job is disruption-proof, but these industries are projected to grow over the next decade.
The AI Data-Center Boom Is a Job-Creation Bust (The Wall Street Journal)
Tech and political leaders tout them as an employment bonanza, but data centers need very few workers in very large spaces.
Want to fireproof your house? Here’s where to start (The Los Angeles Times)
Managing your property is one of the most important ways you can plan ahead for big fires.
DOGE’s Chaos Reaches Antarctica (WIRED)
Daily life at US-run Antarctic stations has already been disrupted. Scientists worry that the long-term impacts could upend not only important research but the continent’s delicate geopolitics.
The Democrats are unpopular, rudderless — and on track for a comeback (Vox)
Trump and Musk are doing the Democrats’ job for them.
Farmers depend on climate data. They’re suing the USDA for deleting it. (Grist)
Growing food is a precarious business, and losing access to key information makes it worse.
This education startup is using AI to help students learn. It says tech should never replace human teachers (Fast Company)
Eugene Kashuk started Brighterly to help American students who are falling behind in math because existing solutions aren’t working.
There’s Something Weird About This Year’s Oscars (The New York Times)
This year, Hollywood is celebrating the kinds of movies it doesn’t make. (Weird, right?)
